NEWS

The Time is Now!

Recently I have just upgraded myself and become a political analyst. I analyse South Afrikan politics because they are the easiest ones to analyse – less tricky than the US with its thousands of lobby groups and Middle Eastern ones with deep-rooted religious twists and turns. There are three groups of political parties in South Africa – that of the people who are already governing, that of disgruntled ones and that of the opposition.

So, the one that is ruling is full of opportunists, criminals, arrogant folks and a few good men and women who work hard to improve the lives of people who put their party into government.

The second group is full of people who used to belong to the ruling party but who saw the prospects of losing the juicy benefits that comes with membership to a ruling party and decided to jump ship before the Titanic sunk.

The third group is career politicians whose main task is to critic whatever the ruling party comes up with in parliament and oppose it – or otherwise try to come up with improved versions of it.

And so the elections pose a challenge to all but one group in this equation. There are only two losers and one winner. First; the ANC is likely to be the loser as long as it fails to secure the two third majority that Thabo Mbeki ruled under its comfort. It will still be the loser if it loses one province to another party. So, the only way the ANC can win is if it retains its two thirds and all nine provinces – which is unlikely.

COPE stands a chance of losing if it fails to win the elections (first) and to be the official opposition (second). It has been shifting goalposts for some time. Last December they wanted to become the next government. In January they wanted to win provinces and govern within coalitions in some provinces and now they want to be the official opposition. If they fail in all three they have won nothing but lost everything since they will be another small party in parliament.

Now the only part that has an edge is the Democratic Alliance. It has everything to gain because it currently sits with 50 seats in parliament. Given that COPE is likely to bite into the support base of the ANC than DA, gaining one more seat for the DA is a win – add that to the possibility that it stands a better chance of winning the Western Cape. So, they might emerge as the only party that won the election, with extra seats, retaining their position as the official opposition and gaining the WC.

And that’s what’s at stake on Election Day, anything else is just plain hullabaloo. Smaller parties like the United Democratic Movement, Independent Democrats, Inkatha Freedom Party, African Christian Democratic Party and other smallernyana ones are just there to make it look like a competition – while the only competition is between the two old regulars, ANC and DA.

PS. I am launching my own political party after elections called Organisation Of The Willing or TWO² which aims to contest the next elections – we starting at local and move on to national at 2014

NEWS

Will the Real People's Party Please Stand Up!

My friend, who loves to crack jokes without any intention of laughing did it again over the weekend. Our 20 minutes long free conversatin, courtesy of Cell C was about - South Afrika of course. But very much tongue in cheek. We discussed the election strategies of different political parties. First we had a field day about the Democratic Alliance posters which do not have the face of the party president but some dodgy folks from small dorpies across the nation. 'Why would they want to have unknowns being the face of the party?', we wondered. Then I tried to solve the mystery by alleging that probably they look at who is popular around a specific area. 'If you joined the DA and they asked you where do you live and you told them in Galeshiwe and you are the most popular DJ at some club there they put your face on the posters', I said, adding that DJs do become presidents as some 34-year-old chap in Madagascar proved.

Yeah, how does one explain the absense of Helen Zille on her party's posters. Some analyst even suggested in Mail&Guardian that the way the Madam is so hated she can't risk alienating voters with her Botoxed mug.

But the party that has to take the trophy should be Congress of the People (COPE). Now, theirs reminded me of the early days of the United Democratic Movement when it was still led by former military man Bantu Holomisa and another former Minister of Defence Roelf Meyer. Then ANC hotshot Thabo Mbeki came to my neighbourhood and cracked jokes about UDM being a party of 'amawele angafani" (twins that don't look alike). To some religiously influenced people he was rather referring to Esau and Jacob. Now for COPE to have Terror Lekota and Bishop Mvume Dandala on the lampposts makes for an interesting jest session with Trevor Noah and Eugene Khoza. Their thin argument that it makes for a case for separation of power is narrow, the executive and the parliament.

Then interesting is the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania one which features their dictator Letlapa Mphahlele posing like soccer-players of old with his fist on his chin as if he's saying 'ek sal jou moer'. 'Wie word jy moer Ntate'. Some sympathetic guy told me that it's not a laughing matter because the size of the poster itself, which drifts from tradition indicates the depth of the pockets. 'You can see Letlapa (Stone in Sepedi) funded this posters from his Postbank Account money. Pity, the IEC should give more money to smaller parties and let the bigger ones raise money from their card holding members'.

A dark horse party that is gaining momentum is Freedom Front Plus. The once small bastion of retired army generals saw its dwindling in support after Gen Constandt Viljoen left. However, even the DA admitted that the increase of black folks within their ranks has alienated a lot of traditional Afrikaaners who have found a political home in FF+. It ain't hard to tell what attracts them there given that there used to be a time I entertained thoughts of joining FF+, however recently it has become too rightwing for many progressive people's liking, lest its emergence as a sober-civilian version of the once feared AWB.

Now, the ANC takes the trophy in shooting itself on the foot. First it has focused its energies and resources on fighting COPE while the enemy is the DA. With 50 seats now I am prepared to bet my last dime that it will have at least 55 after the elections while who the ANC is focusing on might not perform in line with surveys. Having party president Jacob Zuma smiling at the electorate across the country is both positive and negative. First it creates the cult-mentality that Mbeki was once accused of vaunting and second it tells people 'here is the chap charged with corruption, money laundering and racketeering'. You don't have to go far to see the suspect, just turn to your left.

However, when the dust finally settles on April 26, all political parties will sit down and gasp a sigh of relief at the end of a bruising, often tiresome campaign that saw lots of them losing their virginity.