A Day Shall Come - That Day is today 

I’ll like to see the world in the next four months; especially if Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) makes good on its ambition to topple Nuri Al Maliki’s regime in Iraq and then make a move for Tehran. Overthrowing the Shia government of Iraq will not be easy but it is achievable given that the United States of America is responding in the only way a person with a BIG hammer does – seeing every problem as a nail.

 The US might feel duty bound to help Iraq since it is the power that dismantled its armed forces and badly trained and armed the current crop. That the Iraqi Army, which was advised and armed by the US is faltering on the march of a bunch of lightly-armed bearded fighters is an indictment on American military doctrine. The US is seizing this opportunity to redeem itself and its faltering empire. However, contrary to what neo-conservatives say when they invade countries that they are bringing democracy, we can all see in Iraq that the only residue of military invasion is ethnic chaos.

 Interesting enough we don’t have to look very far behind where there’s a replication; Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. The US, which does not negotiate with terrorists has traded a ‘St Pauline’ Sergeant who had a Damascus experience on his way to Kabul for five Taliban leaders former US deputy president Dick Cheney and Senator John McCain best described as ‘worst of the worst’. This is part of the US retreat from a country they have invested both blood and money. It’s a dog escaping with a tail between its legs. Then the same government’s proxy in Libya is running amok and creating chaos last seen when the West’s planes bombarded residential areas of Benghazi and Tripoli. That’s the democracy America preaches.

 Then Iraq happens and the same US which said it is building civil society looked the other way as Maliki centred power around himself and closed the door to millions of Sunnis who now sympathise with ISIL. What is happening in Iraq is a failure of US foreign policy; a slump Barack Obama is trying to repair with air strikes and drone attacks. That strategy, like the surge of 2008 is likely to fail and result in the fall of Baghdad after Tikrit and Mosul.

 I started this piece with a teaser on what I shudder to predict the world will be like if Baghdad fell. I don’t want that capital to fall since it will result in loss of hundreds of thousands of lives but part of me wants to know what would happen if ISIL really does gun for Tehran.

 Here’s why I am fascinated by such a development. The US currently pumps millions in trying to stop ISIL from taking Baghdad. So, if that fails and they aim their Toyota Land Cruisers with mounted machine guns towards Tehran, will the US bolster Iran with military power or will it now funnel regime change funds to ISIL? Looking at the US geopolitical posture one will assume the US should automatically fund ISIL since its friend Saudi Arabia is (though not confirmed) probably behind ISIL’s battleground success. And there’s nothing Saudi Arabia will need more than to see the eradication of the greatest Shia regime in the East and the sole custodian of Shia Islam. 

The rattling of the Iranian nest by ISIL attacks will benefit the Saudis, the Bahraini government, Israel and the US. And there’s no telling if these regimes will start funding ISIL to fight their proxy war against the Mullahs of Tehran.

 An engaged Iran will focus less on its nuclear programme and Syria, which will deny oxygen to both Assad and Hezbollah. Suffocating Hezbollah is the one goal Israel daily prays for at the Western Wall in Jerusalem. And having both Assad and Hezbollah out of the picture will be the biggest geopolitical coup of the 21^st century for Israel.

 So, I can’t wait to see the next four months unfold since they might provide the best live documentary footage of power recession. ISIL might be in the same league as Boko Haram but the moment they cross the border into Iran their ideology will be in sync with that of the West. No wonder the same powers that were itching to bomb Syria a few months ago are not really at pains to stop ISIL.

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