ANC would Lose Elections to COPE

As a reputable media outlet we did what established institutions do in times of uncertainty and commissioned a survey into the changed voting patterns of South Afrikans.

We asked, rather bluntly what party would South Afrikans vote for if elections were held tomorrow? The people’s responses over a month indicated an interesting trend. Ordinary, to use it loosely, insinuating people with online access and technical savvy to vote in online polls have spoken and if anything their response mirrors a lot of what is happening in South Afrika, in little hamlets, farmhouses, shacks and thatched huts in rural areas.

If elections were held tomorrow;

43% of the people surveyed would vote for Congress of the People (COPE). This will not give the Shikota faction of the Afrikan National Congress, or Castle Lite/Coke Light as some people would like to joke about it any Union Buildings or parliament. But it would amass 172 seats in the 400 seats national assembly, just enough to forge alliances to govern. Which means the deputy president would come from another party and cabinet will be inclusive with decisions based on consensus.

26% of respondents would vote for smaller parties (Pan Afrikanist Congress of Azania, Azanian people’s organisation, African Christian Democratic Party, Minority Front, United Christian Democratic Party and a plethora of one man shows). The smaller parties can not govern on this paltry showing but it can be useful negotiating bait with COPE to form a Government of National Unity (GNU). These parties alone will command 104 seats, add that to COPE’s 172 and you have 274 seats, which is what the ANC currently has at 69% of the electoral vote. This will translate into a landslide, but in the hands of a coalition it’s still fine.

The ANC will get 21%, which means it can’t even form a government even if it seduced smaller parties. This will mean the ANC becomes the official opposition party with 84 seats. This will also translate into provinces like Eastern and Western Cape.

The DA will lose its official opposition status since it scored a weak 4% on the poll. 4% will not give it enough bargaining chip with COPE since COPE stands to get more muscle from smaller parties which despise the DA than from the DA itself. It means the DA is an endangered species. The DA and FF+ scored the same votes which means collectively they will have 32 seats, which will be 18 seats less what the DA alone currently has.

But more interesting was that on the online survey Inkatha Freedom Party, Independent Democrats and United Democratic Movement didn’t get any vote at all. Either this has to do with the technological sophistication of their voters, socio-economics, geo-politics or they are too tied down to provinces they stand no chance of creating national waves.

The survey had no margin of error because voters had an option of coming back after some few days and changing their vote. In a way they could cross the floor without informing the KEC (Kasiekulture Electoral Commission)

So, if this is the situation in South Afrika, Malibongwe!

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