Recently I have just upgraded myself and become a political analyst. I analyse South Afrikan politics because they are the easiest ones to analyse – less tricky than the US with its thousands of lobby groups and Middle Eastern ones with deep-rooted religious twists and turns. There are three groups of political parties in South Africa – that of the people who are already governing, that of disgruntled ones and that of the opposition.
So, the one that is ruling is full of opportunists, criminals, arrogant folks and a few good men and women who work hard to improve the lives of people who put their party into government.
The second group is full of people who used to belong to the ruling party but who saw the prospects of losing the juicy benefits that comes with membership to a ruling party and decided to jump ship before the Titanic sunk.
The third group is career politicians whose main task is to critic whatever the ruling party comes up with in parliament and oppose it – or otherwise try to come up with improved versions of it.
And so the elections pose a challenge to all but one group in this equation. There are only two losers and one winner. First; the ANC is likely to be the loser as long as it fails to secure the two third majority that Thabo Mbeki ruled under its comfort. It will still be the loser if it loses one province to another party. So, the only way the ANC can win is if it retains its two thirds and all nine provinces – which is unlikely.
COPE stands a chance of losing if it fails to win the elections (first) and to be the official opposition (second). It has been shifting goalposts for some time. Last December they wanted to become the next government. In January they wanted to win provinces and govern within coalitions in some provinces and now they want to be the official opposition. If they fail in all three they have won nothing but lost everything since they will be another small party in parliament.
Now the only part that has an edge is the Democratic Alliance. It has everything to gain because it currently sits with 50 seats in parliament. Given that COPE is likely to bite into the support base of the ANC than DA, gaining one more seat for the DA is a win – add that to the possibility that it stands a better chance of winning the Western Cape. So, they might emerge as the only party that won the election, with extra seats, retaining their position as the official opposition and gaining the WC.
And that’s what’s at stake on Election Day, anything else is just plain hullabaloo. Smaller parties like the United Democratic Movement, Independent Democrats, Inkatha Freedom Party, African Christian Democratic Party and other smallernyana ones are just there to make it look like a competition – while the only competition is between the two old regulars, ANC and DA.
PS. I am launching my own political party after elections called Organisation Of The Willing or TWO² which aims to contest the next elections – we starting at local and move on to national at 2014